Gainwell rushed 14 times for 55 yards in Week 1, with D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott picking up just one carry apiece. Pick: Under 45 (Play to 44.5)Ĭould the Kenneth Gainwell RB1 experience be over after just one week? It sure seems like that. This spot Monday night is screaming to bettors to play the under. Simply betting every night game over the past five years with a closing total of 45 or greater would have netted a 27% return on investment with a 65.9% win rate. In these games, when the total has closed at 44 or higher, the under has cashed in 15 of 21 games, 71.4%. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, all in-conference night games have tilted towards the under at a 69.6% rate over a 46-game sample size. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles should implement a more conservative game plan than he usually does due to Hurts' indecisiveness and to keep his CBs from playing on an island against A.J. According to Sharp Football, Hurts has averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt when teams opt to sit back in zone coverage without blitzing. Philadelphia's offense in total is 19th in yards per play this season and ranks 23rd in pass offense DVOA. The Eagles have not gotten into a rhythm offensively and the numbers bear it out. Jalen Hurts is still going through a bit of an adjustment period with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson after losing Shane Steichen. We could see a few drive-killers in the form of penalty flags in this game. Now, Tampa Bay has to face a ferocious Eagles front seven, and you know flags will be ready to be thrown. That's especially important here because the Buccaneers entered Week 2 leading the NFL with five offensive holding penalties committed this season. A lot of that is because his crew calls offensive holding at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Games he has officiated since 2020 are 32-19 (62%) to the under. Needless to say, both of these teams are due for some regression in luck when it comes to putting up points.Īdrian Hill will be the referee for this game. Last week, the Buccaneers also benefited from a Justin Fields pick-six on a throw from inside his own end zone. Philadelphia has benefited a lot from turnovers and had two touchdown drives that were fewer than 30 yards, and it also got a pick-six in Week 2. In the Eagles' case, their offense has been surprisingly mediocre this season, ranking just 13th in DVOA. This means both teams have quite a few more points than play-by-play data would suggest. This game has the lowest luck total difference of the week at -11, according to our NFL Luck Rankings.
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